This one, of course. Not this one. As the infamous "man in the shadows" famously told Woodward in All the President's Men, "follow the money".
It turns out he may be right. Though not necessarily in the sense he intended. I just read an interesting article on the predictive accuracy of betting markets. Evidently, prediction markets have been all but infallible in forecasting the outcomes of a number of elections both in the US and Europe – often in contradiction to the polls. Intrade seems to be the online prediction market leader and, for what it's worth, currently shows Obama with a very healthy lead.
1. Please, do not let the election market's current state keep you from voting. It ain't over 'til it's over.
2. I briefly toyed with the idea of headlining this post, "Obama? You Bet!". You're welcome.